What the Heatwave Taught Me About Running a Cake Shed

Last week, the UK did what it occasionally does and forgot how to cope with hot weather.

The red top tabloids ran the usual 'Phew, what a scorcher!" headlines.

Cake sheds closed.

Ice cream sales soared.

Restaurants and cafés sat half empty.

And, perhaps most unexpectedly, I was given 180 free eggs because wholesale demand had fallen so dramatically. (I'll save the tale of what I did with them for another blog). Flustered at the thought of dealing with said 180 eggs in a heatwave, I popped a poll on my insta stories to see if people would choose cake or ice-cream in the heat. A resounding 94.4% of people voted ice cream.

I only have a cake shed, not an ice cream van and so I chose to not open that weekend.

It also made me realise something important.

Running a cake shed isn't really about cake. It's about understanding demand.

The myth of "build it and they will come"

One of the most common posts I see from new cake shed owners goes something like this:

"I had a brilliant first week... now nobody's coming. Have I made a mistake?"

It makes for difficult reading because most of us have been there and it feels like a personal judgment of our baking skills rather than bigger factors.

We bake beautiful products, fill our sheds, post on social media and wait.

Sometimes we sell out.

Sometimes we don't.

The temptation is to assume we know why.

But assumptions rarely help us make better decisions. It could be the heat. People could be away on holiday.

They could be choosing ice cream.

It might be mid-month and funds are low. It's payday weekend so they should be coming in droves, right?

Or maybe they're all at the local multiplex cinema spending their money on over-priced popcorn and getting free air-conditioning for a couple of hours.

The businesses that survive don't stand still

Over the last week I've watched different bakers respond in completely different ways.

Some closed during the heat.

Others reduced production.

Some switched to cheesecakes and chilled desserts.

Others introduced drinks or picnic-friendly products.

Some focused on pre-orders instead of hoping for walk-in customers.

One baker pivoted to have an incredibly successful cookie-only shed.

Another has built a business around themed products and seasonal launches.

None of them found a magic formula.

They experimented. They put in the hard work businesses need.

Because a cake shed is a business. Just the same as a bespoke cake business. Just with a different sales model.

Every business needs a pivot plan

COVID taught many of us this lesson.

Businesses that adapted survived.

Restaurants became takeaways.

Cake makers offered postal boxes or Friday treat boxes dropped on your doorstep.

Classes moved online.

The businesses that thrived weren't necessarily the biggest.

They were the quickest to adapt.

A heatwave is simply another reminder that customer behaviour changes.

The question isn't whether things will change.

It's whether we're ready when they do.

Last winter - we had some horrendously wet weekends.

I thought my shed would be quiet...

Nobody wants to schlep out in the rain.

The dog walkers won't be strolling past.

I thought about reducing my products.

Then someone said 'Do you do crumble?'

I introduced crumble pots, custard and sticky toffee puddings in place of our usual cookie pie fare.

And gingerbread men for the kids.

Warm.

Comforting.

Nostalgic.

There was a queue of umbrellas down my street.

They flew out.

A simple, seasonal pivot.

Hope isn't a strategy

One of the biggest shifts in my own thinking has been moving away from asking:

"Why isn't anybody buying?"

towards asking:

"What evidence do I actually have?"

Instead of changing everything after one quiet weekend...

Can I test something?

Can I ask my customers?

Can I change one variable and see what happens?

Can I learn something that makes next weekend better?

Because that's how resilient businesses are built.

Not through perfect predictions.

Through observation, experimentation and adaptation.

Your next job isn't to bake more

It's to learn one new thing about your customers.

Every week.

That one insight might be worth far more than another batch of brownies.

So... what's your pivot plan?

The weather will change.

Customer habits will change.

Your local competition will change.

Life will throw curveballs that none of us can predict.

The question isn't whether your business will face challenges.

It's whether you've already thought about how you'll respond.

If this article has made you realise you've been relying a little too much on hope (and we've all been there!), I'm currently developing the next live version of my Why Isn't Anybody Buying? workshop.

It's a practical session designed to help baking businesses stop guessing and start understanding what their customers are really telling them.

We'll look at customer behaviour, simple experiments you can run, ways to gather meaningful feedback and how to build your own pivot plan so you're making decisions based on evidence rather than emotion.

If you'd like to hear when the next workshop is released, join the waiting list below.

Because the businesses that thrive aren't the ones that never face challenges.

They're the ones that know how to adapt.

Join the Waiting List